The playoffs are promised to no one. Especially in an ever-changing league where offseason player movement dramatically alters the balance of power.
This is where we are entering the upcoming NBA season. The turnover from teams that qualified for last season’s playoffs to this season’s playoffs could be unprecedented. At least 24 teams legitimately view themselves as playoff material. Yet, only 16 will get in.
These are the five teams I expect to unseat some of those in last season’s NBA playoffs:
1. INDIANA PACERS
Tyrese Haliburton returns to a loaded Pacers lineup.
Remember them?
Two seasons ago, they were one win away from being NBA champions. Then, injuries destroyed their 2025-26 campaign. But they are back, led by the 1,000-watt smile of Tyrese Haliburton, who returns after missing all of last season due to a torn Achilles.
He is the headliner on a team that has a ton of talent. Players that you know — Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, T.J. McConnell. And new faces like Kelly Oubre Jr. My expectation is this team gets straight back to being elite, with threats all over the court, a breakneck pace under coach Rick Carlisle, and added bulk inside with last season’s acquisition of Zubac.
It would not be a surprise to see this team in the top 3 of a suddenly deep Eastern Conference at season’s end.
2. DALLAS MAVERICKS
No team in the Western Conference may have a bigger wins improvement year over year than the Mavericks. With just 26 victories in star Cooper Flagg’s rookie NBA season, the Mavericks made three major additions I expect will significantly change their fortunes.
First, the return of Kyrie Irving. Lost to the team in March of 2025 to an ACL injury, the superstar guard missed all of last season. But he is fully recovered and will give the Mavs the scoring, playmaking and veteran savvy from the guard spot they were sorely missing last season. He’s one of the great players in the league and dropping him back in the lineup alone raises Dallas’ ceiling.
Dusty May led Michigan to the national championship in April.
Second, the hiring of Dusty May. May is one of the smartest, most-innovative coaches around and comes to the Mavericks after having led the University of Michigan to an NCAA title last season. I have great respect for what he has done on the collegiate level and expect he’ll have success in the NBA as well.
Third, drafting Morez Johnson Jr. The very athletic and rangy, defensive-first forward played for May at Michigan last season. Dallas snagged him with the ninth pick in the draft and adds him to a team fully stocked with high-level utility players like Dereck Lively II, PJ Washington and Naji Marshall.
3. UTAH JAZZ
Guard Keyonte George took a big step forward last season.
After years of losing basketball, it’s finally time for Utah to step up and inject itself into the playoff race, and as long as their important players all play at least 60 games, they’ll do just that.
The crown jewel was drafting high-scoring Kansas guard Darryn Petersen. He lit up summer league and is expected to start in a quintet that should include Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and either Ace Bailey if Jackson Jr. plays at center or Jusuf Nurkic if Utah pushes Jackson Jr. to the four.
There are just a lot of fun players for coach Will Hardy to deploy. Isaiah Collier, Brice Sensebaugh, Josh Green, and Josh Okogie among them. Hardy is the most underrated coach in the league, but he’ll get a chance to showcase his chops this season. Utah, which won just 22 games in 2025-26, will challenge Dallas for the biggest wins improvement from last season to this.
4. CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Brandon Miller led Charlotte in scoring last season at 20.2 points per game.
The Hornets were a near-miss playoff participant last season, losing in the second play-in game to the Orlando Magic to end their season.
They then made major changes to the roster, sending popular guard LaMelo Ball to Minnesota in exchange for Naz Reid and a bunch of picks; and also jettisoning Miles Bridges to Phoenix for Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale and more picks.
Now look: the general consensus is this team takes a step back without Ball, but I don’t think so.
Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel are ready for expanded roles. Charlotte’s team shot profile will improve without some of the erratic attempts Ball sometimes puts up. And Ball’s points and playmaking will be approximated well by guards Coby White and Dennis Schroeder, among others. Reid gives them a bonafide big that can knock down 3s, and this is the team that made more treys per game (16.4) than any other.
5. MIAMI HEAT
To be honest, I am a little on the fence with this team. They made a splash in trading for the powerful Giannis Antetokounmpo. The question here is did they do enough to fill in around him after sending out a lot of talent to Milwaukee in the deal?
Everyone in Miami was all smiles after trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The additions of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Klay Thompson are meant to put shooting and create space on the floor so defenses don’t just crowd-out Giannis and Bam Adebayo. Andrew Wiggins will have green light to launch from deep as well.
Can other players like guard Pelle Larsson, who played great for Sweden in the FIBA World Cup Qualifying, take a step up and give this team meaningful depth? That remains to be seen.