This summer, it was as if Oprah had been entrusted with a big bag of unprotected first-round picks.
“You get a pick! You get a pick! You get a pick!”
Unprotected first-round picks flew off the shelves as if they were on clearance.
Miami sent unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033 to Milwaukee in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade.
The Lakers sent unprotected first round picks in 2031 and 2033 to Utah in a sign-and-trade to acquire center Walker Kessler.
Denver acquired an unprotected 2031 first-round pick in the sign-and-trade of Peyton Watson.
The Los Angeles Clippers are set to receive 2031 and 2033 unprotected first-round picks from Toronto to trade Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors.
Philadelphia sent its 2031 first-round pick, unprotected, to the Celtics in the Jaylen Brown trade.
That’s a whopping eight picks unprotected changing hands in a matter of a few months. For perspective, in 2024 there were 24 unprotected picks owed in total. A third of that was tossed around this summer in a matter of months.
The question I have is: Why?
This is highly-coveted draft capital, traded freely in extremely special situations, and with a belief that they might not turn out as high as they could be. As recently as earlier this year, Indiana Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard took to X to apologize to fans when the Pacers traded an unprotected first-round pick to the Clippers that turned into the fifh pick of the draft.
“I’m really sorry to all our fans,” Pritchard wrote. “I own taking this risk.”
Now, it seems nearly everyone is cool with taking the risk. And for a couple of reasons.
First off, there were a lot of high-profile players traded, and with high-profile players come high-value draft picks in return. But there is a difference between getting Giannis and Brown and Kawhi; and then Kessler or Watson. These picks did not just go with the biggest of stars in the league.
So what else? How much of that has to do with the new lottery rules? To me, a lot.
To be clear, these picks are still valuable. You’d much rather have one than not have one. But that value has taken a sizeable hit. The NBA’s 3-2-1 lottery system is in place to discourage teams from tanking. Simply, the three worst teams get 2 lottery balls — odds that reduce their odds to get the top pick from roughly 60 percent down to 16 percent.
And in the year the pick is to be conveyed, if the team that traded the pick is bad already, what’s the incentive to play better to increase the odds for the team that now owns the pick? None. They could tank to get to one of the three worst records in order to lessen the odds that pick ends up No. 1.
In the new lottery rules, the next seven non-play in teams have the best odds — three lottery balls each. If you make the 9 vs. 10 play-in game (4 teams) then you get two lottery balls. If you lose the 7 vs. 8 play-in game (2 teams), you get one lottery ball.
That leaves a lot of room for shenanigans. Owe a pick, but know you aren’t making a title run? Lose in either of the play-in games and devalue the pick to two or one lottery ball.
The next few years will be instructional as to how teams navigate these new waters. The picks traded this summer won’t come to roost for at least the next five years. By then, if these remain the lottery rules, teams will be experts at navigating the landscape, including how to manipulate them if they wanted.
Then we’ll be back to square one.